Aging Trends

History background

Italy is considered one of the countries with the most serious ageing population. In the past ten years, the average age of Italian residents has risen from 43 to 45.7 years, the life expectancy of men has reached 81 years, and the life expectancy of women has reached 85.3 years, and the proportion of the population over 65 has risen to 23.2%.

Data show that as of January 1, 2017, the total population of Italy was 60.57 million, a decrease of 86,000 compared with the same period last year, and negative growth for nine consecutive years since 2007. New births fell to 474,000 in 2016 from 486,000 the previous year, and deaths fell to 608,000 from 648,000. More than 115,000 Italians emigrated abroad in 2016, an increase of 12.6% compared to 2015.

The report pointed out that the aging process of Italy's population continued. In 2016, the population over 65 years old exceeded 13.5 million, accounting for 22.3% of the country's total population, an increase of 0.3% over the previous year. At the same time, the average life expectancy of Italian men in 2016 increased from 80.1 years in the previous year to 80.6 years, and for women from 84.6 years to 85.1 years. In addition, the average age of childbearing women in Italy increased to 31.7 years old in 2016, and the average fertility rate fell to 1.34 from 1.35 last year.

According to statistics in 2019, Italy is the second most aging country in the world. The total population of Italy is about 59.5 million, of which about 28.6% are over 60 years old and 22.4% are over 65 years old. %, 1 in 5 people in Italy is over the age of 65. Germany is the third most aging country in the world. The total population of Germany is about 83.15 million, of which the population over 60 years old accounts for about 27.4%, and the population over 65 years old accounts for about 21.1%.

Latest survey

In the latest report released by the Italian Central Statistics Office, Italy's population is expected to fall to about 47.6 million in 2070, down about 20% from January 2020. Local Italian media reported on the 27th that the population of Italy was about 59.6 million in January 2020, and this number is expected to drop to about 58 million in 2030 and further to about 54.1 million in 2050.

In addition to the shrinking population, Italy's aging population cannot be ignored. The Central Bureau of Statistics predicts that between 2020 and 2050, the average age of Italians will increase from 45.7 years old to 50.7 years old; the proportion of people over 65 years old in the total population will increase from 23.2% to 35%; the proportion of people under 14 years old will increase from 13% to no more than 12%; the proportion of the working-age population will drop from 63% to 53%. The Italian birth rate has been at a low level among European countries for many years. Since 2007, the death rate of the Italian population has exceeded the birth rate every year.

The Italian Labour Confederation's research institute said the ageing population will have a serious impact on the country's labor market. In 20 years, Italy's working-age population between the ages of 16 and 63 will decrease by 6.8 million, while the non-working-age population under 15 and over 64 will increase by 3.8 million.

In 2021, Italian media reported that, at present, the number of Italians over 65 years old is 1.5 times that of young people under 14 years old, and by 2030, this proportion will increase to 2.07 times. The changes in the demographic structure of the aging society have brought serious challenges to Italian politics, economy and society.

The rise of the aging population has brought some social problems. For example, the inclination of public opinion of older voters has an impact on the national policy level and reshapes the socio-economic trend of Italy. In addition, Italians have a strong sense of family, and caring for the elderly is seen as a family responsibility. The proportion of nursing homes and home care services in Italy is not high, and government agencies and society will only intervene when empty nesters and single elderly need them. Therefore, the health status and daily care of the aging population has become an increasingly important issue in Italian society. The Italian news agency ANSA cited the latest data from the Italian Health Observatory showing that by 2028, there will be about 6.3 million elderly people in Italy who will lose their independence, which will bring serious social problems such as insufficient care. At the same time, the proportion of the elderly in Italy suffering from depression and the divorce cases of the elderly population reorganizing their families have also been on the rise in recent years.

Population Pyramids - Population Pyramid of Italy at 2022

IT Italy

At year 2022, the population distribution of Italy is:

Total population	59,119,400	100%
Juvenile population	7,416,450	12.54%
Working age population	37.601.842	63.60%
Elderly population	14,101.108	23.85%

The working-age population will be less than 60% of the total population in 2032. The elderly population will more than double the teenage population by 2024. The total population peaked at 60,347,844 in 2014.

In 2050, the elderly population will account for 37.09% of the Italian population, and the problem of population aging is serious.]World Bank Global Statistics]

Figure 2 [World Bank Global Statistics]

History background

Germany began its long aging process in the second half of the 19th century. In 1930, its population aged 65 and above accounted for 7% of the total population, which marked that Germany had taken the lead in entering an aging society. Since then, the proportion of the elderly has continued to rise. In the course of 45 years from 1930 to 1975, the proportion of the German population aged 65 and over has jumped from 7% to 14%.

Germany's economic situation is more tolerant of population aging, so its pension insurance rates and pension levels are relatively high. According to statistics, the premium rate of statutory pension insurance in Germany in 1997 and 1998 was as high as 20.3%. Its strong economic base gives it the capital to maintain high pension expenditures. However, the deepening development of population aging and the increase in life expectancy will inevitably lead to an increase in the number of pensioners and the number of years they receive. Even in the current economic situation, it is doubtful whether the original high level of benefits can be maintained. . If the economic situation deteriorates and the rigidity of high welfare makes it difficult to drastically reduce the pension level, it will be difficult to ride a tiger. Germany is aware of this, and tried to reduce the excessive pension level in the Pension Reform Act of 1999, adding a population development factor to the pension calculation formula, and at the same time to ensure the moderateness of the decline in the pension level, with / pension Gold Level Guarantee Clause 0 to guarantee standard pension levels.

Latest survey

In 2020, Germany's population is 83.155 million, with a natural growth rate of -2.5‰, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared with the baby boom period in 1964. For 48 consecutive years, the new population has been unable to make up for the death gap, mainly relying on immigrants and second-generation immigrants as the source of population growth. Germany's population is expected to decrease by about 6% by 2060 compared to 2020. There were 212,000 more deaths than births in Germany in 2020, up from 161,000 in 2019, and the natural population growth gap widened. According to the German Federal Statistical Office, despite the increase in the mortality rate of the German population in 2020 due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the number of elderly people continued to grow. The population aged 80 and over increased by 4.5% over the previous year to 5.9 million, pushing up pensions gold and health care costs.

According to World Bank data, from 1950 to 2020, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in Germany increased from 9.7% to 21.9%, higher than the 16.6%, 18.2%, 18.7%, and 20.8% of the United States, Hong Kong, China, and France. It ranks sixth in the world and is expected to reach 28.5% by 2060. In terms of median age, according to CIA World Factbook data, the median age in Germany increased from 34.2 years old to 47.8 years old in 1970-2020, ranking fourth in the world, slightly lower than Japan's 48.7 years old, and much higher than Italy, France, Britain and the United States. middle. From the perspective of aging speed, Germany's aging speed is second only to Japan, ranking first in Western countries. It took Germany 40 years to transition from an aging population of more than 7% of the population aged 65 and over to a deep aging of more than 14%, and 65, 126, 46, 24 years in the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Japan. year.

According to the latest demographic data released by the German Federal Statistics Office on the 27th in 2020, as of the end of 2019, there were 17.7 million elderly people aged 65 and over in Germany, accounting for 21.4% of the total population. Germany's elderly population has grown by 36.6% over the past 20 years. At the end of 1997, Germany's elderly population aged 65 and over was 13 million, accounting for 15.8% of the total population.

Women accounted for 56.4% of the German population aged 65 and over, compared with 63% at the end of 1997. Among the EU countries, Germany is a country with a relatively serious aging population. The average proportion of the population aged 65 and over in the EU is 19.4% of the total population, only Italy and Greece are slightly older than Germany.

With the ageing trend, Germany faces a severe shortage of nursing staff. According to local media reports, Germany currently has nearly 1 million nursing staff, and the nursing work is overwhelming. At the end of 2017, about 2.9 million people in Germany needed care, and by 2030, 4.1 million people are expected to need care.

In July 2020, the German government announced plans to increase nursing staff wages, improve working conditions, and strengthen nursing training. Health Minister Jens Spahn also said plans to recruit more nursing staff from overseas.

In December 2019, 4.13 million people in Germany required long-term care as defined by the Long-Term Care Insurance Act, a significant increase of 710,000 people or 21% compared to the 3.41 million people who required long-term care in December 2017.

As the new, broader concept of long-term care becomes known, and the combined aging deepens, the number of people in need of care will increase year by year. In terms of the number of staff involved in nursing care, in 2017, Germany had 764,000 nursing staff in nursing homes and 390,000 nursing staff in home care, a total of 1.155 million, which was far lower than the 3.41 million who needed nursing services that year.

Judging from the distribution of health care facilities and medical institutions near the place of residence, about 67% of people in need of nursing care in Germany in 2019 lived in a family environment and were cared for by relatives or professionals who provided outpatient care services. But according to the Berlin Demographic Institute, more than 76 percent of German baby boomers prefer to remain independent for longer and move freely around their place of residence, rather than simply being cared for at home. At the same time, 35% of the elderly in the community believe that it is more and more important to have a complete family doctor and medical supplies store within the short-distance travel range of walking or carrying vehicles. Especially in eastern Germany and rural areas, the distribution density of medical branches and health centers is less than 60% of that in developed western regions, and the shortage of professional nursing staff will become more and more serious with the aging.

Population Pyramids - Population Pyramid of Germany at 2022

DE Germany

At year 2022, population distribution of Germany is:

Total population	83,426,788	100%
Juvenile population	11.626.786	13.94%
Working age population	53,221,159	63.79%
Elderly population	18,578,843	22.27%

The working-age population will be less than 60% of the total population in 2030. The elderly population will more than double the teenage population by 2033. The total population will peak at 83,426,788 in 2022,

In 2050, the elderly population will account for 30.43% of the German population, and the problem of population aging is serious. [World Bank Global Statistics]

Figure 2 [World Bank Global Statistics]

History background

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia's population has been declining for many economic and social reasons. Russia's population was 148.6 million in 1993, and fell to about 142.8 million in 2008, a decrease of nearly 6 million. From 1992 to 2008, Russia's total population fell from 148.5 million to 142.7 million, a decrease of about 5.8 million people.

In 2013, Russia experienced its first natural population increase since independence, with 22,900 more births than deaths. In 2015, Russia's total population increased to 146.3 million, completing the goals and tasks of the "Concept of Population Policy of the Russian Federation up to 2025" ahead of schedule. In 2017, Russia's total population climbed to 146.88 million, the second-highest total Russian population since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

However, the economic and social factors that led to the decline of Russia's population have not been fundamentally improved, and the downward pressure on the population has returned after a brief relief. From 2018, the Russian population began to decline again, and the decline has become more and more steep.

According to international practice, when a country's elderly population over the age of 60 accounts for 10% of the total population, or the elderly population over the age of 65 reaches 7% of the total population, it means that the country has begun to enter an aging society. "Russia's... the elderly dependency ratio is as high as 34% to 36%. The elderly dependency ratios of countries with a serious aging trend in the world during the same period are: 17.2% to 24.2% in Japan, 24.1% to 24.3% in the UK, and 21.7% in Germany. %～23.7%, France 21.3%～24.8%. From an international comparison, the old-age dependency ratio in Russia is at a very high level, which shows that the ageing degree of the Russian population is very serious.” As of January 2005, Russia’s 60 The population over the age of 65 accounts for 17.33% of the total population, and the population over the age of 65 accounts for 13.72% of the total population. Therefore, Russia is already a veritable aging country.

After a small decline in 2018 and 2019, Russia's demographic situation has ushered in an unusually dire 2020. Affected by the new crown epidemic, the number of deaths in 2020 increased by 18% compared with 2019, reaching about 2.139 million, of which about 104,000 deaths were directly caused by the new crown virus. During the same period, the number of births in Russia was about 1.437 million, a decrease of 44,600 from 2019. There were far more deaths than births, and the natural decline in the population was the highest since 2005. The epidemic has restricted the inflow of foreign immigrants, and in 2020 Russia will only replenish about 100,000 people through foreign immigration. The combination of the natural population decline and the sharp decline in foreign immigration has resulted in a population reduction of about 600,000 in Russia in 2020, 18 times that of 2019 and the largest since 2003.

In 2019, the proportion of the Russian population over the age of 65 was 14%, and by the beginning of 2021, it has reached 15.5%. Although the aging of Russia is not as serious as that of Japan and European countries, it has reached the level of developed countries such as the United States, Australia and Canada, and the phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich" is becoming more and more prominent. Second, the old problem of gender imbalance remains unresolved. In 2021, men will account for 46.3% of the Russian population and 53.7% of women, with nearly 11 million more women than men.

Latest survey

According to the Russian Federal Bureau of Statistics, as of the beginning of 2020, the total population of Russia was 146.781 million, of which more than 32 million were over 60 years old, accounting for 21.8% of the total population.

According to the specific data, as of the beginning of 2020, the population of Russia was 146.781 million, including 68.097 million males and 78.684 million females. According to the specific age groups:

1) There are more than 18 million children aged 0-9, and more than 14.7 million teenagers aged 10-19;

2) There are more than 17.3 million young people aged 20-29, 24.4 million aged 30-39, and 20.3 million aged 40-49;

3) There are 19.8 million retirees aged 50-59;

4) There are more than 32 million people over the age of 60, accounting for 21.8% of the total population.

RU Russian Federation

At year 2022, population distribution of Russian Federation is:

Total population	144,732,514	100%
Juvenile population	25,685,450	17.75%
Working age population	96,329,309	66.56%
Elderly population	22,717,755	15.70%

The working-age population will be less than 60% of the total population in 2051. The total population peaked in 1994 at 148,932,648.

In 2050, the elderly population accounts for 24.12% of the population of the Russian Federation, and the problem of population aging is serious. [World Bank Global Statistics]

Figure 2 [World Bank Global Statistics]